Brian Shiro NOAA Federal - Response to Questions

What advancements or new technology is being developed for the warning of earthquakes prior to the earthquake occurring?

Unfortunately, there is no reliable way to predict when future earthquakes will happen - at least not yet. Most seismologists believe such prediction ability, if it ever happens, will be far in the future. However, many researchers are working on this problem, and there are some compelling possibilities on the horizon. For example, people have long noticed that some animals seem to know an earthquake is coming before it arrives. They must be feeling some type of precursor and then responding to it. There are also well-documented but difficult-to-explain phenomena of earthquake lights, thermal infrared anomalies, VLP (very low frequency) radio waves, and TEC (total electron count) anomalies that been observed in areas near future earthquake epicenters. These all point to some type of electromagnetic disturbance that may be associated with the tectonic pressure buildup that leads to earthquakes. In a few decades we may understand such phenomena well enough to use this information in a predictive sense, but it is still much to early to tell. You can learn more about these concepts here: http://geocosmo.org/the-science/and http://www.seti.org/seti-institute/project/details/friedemann-freund-—-future-forecasting-earthquakes

I want to stress that from the perspective of public safety from earthquakes or tsunamis, we are a very long way off from being able to any sort of predictive abilities related to the above or anything else. Thus, warning for seismic events today is focused on rapid detection of earthquakes after they occur and quickly getting notifications out to people in the affected area. In places where we have a sufficiently dense seismic monitoring network, we can even warn people in advance of the earthquake shaking through a process called ‘earthquake early warning’. This relies upon very rapid detection of the earthquake close-in to the epicenter and sending of warnings in advance of the seismic wavefront. Only a few places like Japan, California, and a few other urban centers in Mexico, Taiwan, and Romania have dense enough seismic station networks to allow for earthquake early warning. You can learn more about that here: http://www.shakealert.org and http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/earlywarning/

Do you believe that humanity have enough information to disaster proof the planet? (do we have the understanding and technology to be able to avoid disasters after tectonic events?)

No. We cannot prevent natural disasters for happening. As the human population grows, natural disasters will have more and more potential for harm going into the future. All we can do is study them to better understand them, monitor them closely, and mitigate the threat in a proactive way. This includes having appropriate building codes to ensure structures don’t collapse during earthquakes, having evacuation plans and practicing evacuation drills with the public, and ensuring that key infrastructure like power plants, hospitals, and water supplies are protected.

Do you believe the ability of humanity to disaster proof itself is case specific, therefore economic and political factors also play a part in the ability of a country to disaster proof itself?

There is no way to “disaster proof” humanity. Yes, economic and political factors definitely play a key role in how well a country can protect itself to mitigate the effects of disasters. For example, the relatively small magnitude 7.0 Haiti earthquake in 2010 caused tremendous damage and casualties (maybe more than 200,000). This is due largely to how poor the country is and the lack of any appropriate building code standards to and other essential infrastructure. Events of that magnitude occurring in more developed countries have much smaller detrimental effects due to better planning and resources that are allocated towards mitigating hazards.

When do you think the next big earthquake off the coast of Japan will occur?

I do not know. Most seismologists did not think a magnitude 9 earthquake was even possible there. Yet it happened. This has fundamentally changed how we think about the physics of faulting and strength of rocks/sediments at subduction zones and the threat posed by them. Since the section of fault around Tohoku, Japan has ruptured in 2011, it is highly unlikely that another large earthquake will occur there for several hundreds of years. However, the areas north or south of the ruptured fault area would be places to expect larger earthquakes to happen sooner. If this occurred to the south, it could be very bad for even larger population centers such as Tokyo. See the following for some more on the subject: http://www.livescience.com/27773-how-japan-s-2011-earthquake-happened-infographic.html andhttp://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-01/new-earthquake-study-raises-alarm-fault-areas-thought-be-low-risk and http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/the-2011-japan-tsunami-was-caused-by-largest-fault-slip-ever-recorded/

How did the recent 2011 Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami and the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami aid research into the understanding of tectonics and how to prepare for earthquakes?

Both of these events changed how seismologies think earthquake faulting works. The 2004 Sumatra earthquake ruptured on the longest length fault ever recorded (over 1200 km), and the 2011 Tohoku event was the largest slip on a fault ever recorded at 80 meters. Both of these challenged our understanding of how rocks respond to stress, how coupling between plates is affected by the strength of rock, and what this means for earthquake potential. The 2004 event in particular spawned a revolution of international attention, funding, and research into the threat of large, tsunamigenic earthquakes that has greatly improved how quickly and accurately tsunami warning can happen. These events have led to more seismic monitoring stations to be deployed and thus better capabilities for earthquake early warning.

Have there been any other break throughs in tectonic movement and motion that would relate to the topic of my studies?

I can offer that the biggest single breakthrough that has aided in tsunami forecasting (estimation of tsunami height) has been the development of faster and cheaper computers over the past decade. We’ve gone from tsunami forecast models taking hours to complete to just seconds today. Our decision-making is better as a result, and we can offer more precise warnings. Add to this, the great increase in seismic and sea level monitoring networks worldwide and improved data transmission capabilities, and we can now detect earthquakes and issue tsunami warnings in a matter of a few minutes in most areas.



Sincerely,
Brian Shiro
Geophysicist
NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
Honolulu, Hawaii, USA